Posted 2/11/2019 22:28 (#7315099 - in reply to #7312506) Subject: RE: My Reactions / Extra Thoughts What if Price was...
Conan the Farmer - 2/10/2019 23:52 In 2014, we saw an average market year bid of $75.94, an all-time high.
SO: PRICE QUESTIONS: If you could make $140,000 caring for 100 sows in this hypothetical non-confinement world, would you do it? Are there 80-200,000 people left in America who would do that task? Do you think a jump of weighted price from $3.75 in the store to $5.25 would cut much demand or like $3.00 gasoline, do you think people would just become accustomed to it over time? If the average American consumes 50# of pork per year and we presume it drops to 45# for the demand slippage; the annual per capita pork spending would rise from $188 to $236; would $50 per person be that noticeable over time?
Your 2014 average market year bid is way too low to be accurate for a carcass price. I'd have to look back but I don't think 2014 cash hog prices spent very much time below $76 and they were a whole lot higher than $76 for most of the year.
Guys with 100 sows made a ton of money in 2014 IF they didn't get PED.
Would I take care of a 100 sows outside for $140,000. (That's not as much as the 100 sow guy made in 2014 with good production) Maybe but probably not. Working with hogs isn't that fun. Working with hogs in conditions where they're miserable and so are you really isn't fun. There's better ways to make a living even if they pay less.