okay.. pretty big thread.. some of it directed at me..

Last Fall.. 

Jon started last fall with this ever changing mantra of what he is not going to plant - telling us that corn and beans weren't worth the effort and well lucky for Jon he could simply plant milo or sorghum didn't need to worry about him if they wanted his corn and beans they would have to raise the price. well then what happened ?? 

True.. If the commodity bubble is over.. it really doesn't pay to push Double crop here.. which was what I was getting at.. We're gonna ditch that.. or at least probably cut back some on it..which was my intention. 

As it turned out we had a fairly open fall and we put a few more irrigated wheat acres in then originally intended.. some of which is now winter killed.

I do think as others have alluded up above that some acreage WILL go out of Corn and even Soybeans into Sorghum.. That is due to actions in China.. with their Quota's on Corn.. vs non on Sorghum.. how long that continues...??  IDK so I do believe that acres are shifting somewhat.. we'll find out here next week.

the rest of the post..  The main problem here is that most on this site do not want to have to come to the realization that at some point they will have to address land cost.

Okay.. got that point out there.

Ray also commented on multiple plans.. coming from Me..  "holding out for $11 Soybeans.."

The thing that is impacting me is the drought and the winter kill.  I have a portion of one field that is probably 95% killed.. we are waiting on that to be released.  I really need to go back with a roundup program.. I do not want to do the R Up corn.. cause.. I don't have the water.. "the plan" is to go back to corn Next year on this ground... bank moisture with No-Till sponge of Wheat stubble and Soybean stubble.. which worked pretty good last year.

I could go back to Sorghum.. but.. that's not as practical because I do not believe I'm going to get all of the irrigated acreage released... "not my call"  but no doubt some will..  What to do with that?  I can do a better job with the glyphosate vs a Sorghum herbicide..

R-up soybeans.. which is going back on what I said I intended to do last fall.. Things change.

Okay so hopefully that cleans that up... I was trying to admit that I BELIEVE that the MARKET NEEDS more Corn acres.. that AS PRICES FELL.. Producers might have RESPONDED by Actually INCREASING Soybean Acreage..  "Heck with it just gonna go cheap.. low fertility.. going with beans."

So again I believe the opportunity is to increase corn acreage for those who have the moisture and are not going to be under the gun this summer weather wise.. (which I'm pretty convinced that the Northern Plains will.. but.. that's just me..  "could be wrong."

Again Look at this.. past 30 days precip..  California has received more Precipitation than Nebraska...
So far there is a line.. S Texas.. across Arkansas UP THROUGH the Ohio River Valley..  This is Almost the opposite of 2011.. which was a drought SOUTH of I-70... mostly out here on the Plains..


 
Now this is JUNE 2011.. so.. not exactly apples to apples.. but again.. IF the PDO is flipping.. and the Northern Plains are gonna see this dryness continue going forward..??  What do they HAVE to PRIME the PUMP as Fronts come through this summer?  Are they going to be DRY.. like We Were in 2011.. which then builds HEAT.. which turns into a positive feedback loop FURTHER DRYING OUT THE ATMOSPHERE?

IF SO.. THEN That is going to be a POSSIBLE (??) production problem...  It could change.. but.. "not looking good so far.."  But there are a Gazillion other things that can impact it.. things I certainly can't foresee.. as Ray said..  "some producers think they are weather forecasters.. All I know is that THIS.. below.. is.. dry.. we did not get the winter recharge that we needed/expected...

 
Later..