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JonSCKs

Posted 1/13/2019 21:11 (#7243574 - in reply to #7243509)
Subject: Brazil can not supply China's needs. WASDE has you duped.

You have to look at the World Supply and Demand Tables to see it.. Namely the LAST WASDE had Brazilian production at 122 mmt's. Per Cordonier.. private estimates range from 96 to 120 mmt's.. using 115 mmts.. which is 7 mmt's below the last WASDE.. Coupled with the WASDE's unrealistic Brazilian Carryout projections.. I lowered Brazil's exports by 10 mmt's.. While only increasing the US's share 6.29 mmt's In short Brazil has done 114.6 mmt's in 16/17, 120.3 mmt's last year.. and now 115 vs 122. Brazilian Carry out was 26.81 mmt's in 16/17 and 25.15 mmt's last year.. in September.. when they have ALL THE WAY till December for NEW SUPPLIES?!?.. the Last WASDE used 21.35.. ?? Whatever.. I took it down to 23.15.. while bumping domestic back to 45.5 vs 45.94 last year. (games the WASDE plays..) China still has to find the other 3.71 mmt's from someone else.. or take Carryout down to 16.13 mmt's.. vs 23.54 last year. In short.. without Brazil cranking out a 122 to 125 mmt crop.. the numbers don't jive.. World Soybean Supply and Use 1/

(Million Metric Tons)

2016/17		Beginning Stocks	Production	Imports	Domestic Crush	Domestic Total	Exports	Ending Stocks
World 2/		81.05	349.3	144.37	287.42	329.68	147.5	97.53
United States		5.35	116.92	0.61	51.74	55.71	58.96	8.21
Total Foreign		75.69	232.38	143.77	235.68	273.97	88.54	89.32
Major Exporters 3/		52.49	183.15	1.98	87.55	95.4	79.52	62.71
Argentina		33.65	55	1.67	43.31	47.83	7.03	35.46
Brazil		18.76	114.6	0.25	40.41	43.66	63.14	26.81
Paraguay		0.03	10.34	0.01	3.75	3.81	6.13	0.44
Major Importers 4/		19.98	17.54	122.63	113.1	136.57	0.39	23.19
China		17.14	13.64	93.5	88	103.5	0.11	20.66
European Union		1.56	2.41	13.44	14.4	16.04	0.22	1.15
Japan		0.26	0.24	3.18	2.39	3.46	0	0.22
Mexico		0.15	0.52	4.13	4.6	4.64	0	0.16



2017/18 Est.		Beginning Stocks	Production	Imports	Domestic Crush	Domestic Total	Exports	Ending Stocks
World 2/		97.53	339.47	153.54	295.24	336.08	153.16	101.3
United States		8.21	120.04	0.59	55.93	58.97	57.95	11.92
Total Foreign		89.32	219.43	152.94	239.31	277.1	95.22	89.37
Major Exporters 3/		62.71	169.24	5.24	85.36	91.58	85.76	59.86
Argentina		35.46	37.8	5.05	36.98	41.68	2.11	34.52
Brazil		26.81	120.3	0.18	44.5	45.94	76.2	25.15
Paraguay		0.44	9.81	0.01	3.8	3.87	6.2	0.18
Major Importers 4/		23.19	19.24	124.72	116.11	140.43	0.48	26.24
China		20.66	15.2	94.13	90	106.3	0.15	23.54
European Union		1.15	2.67	14.58	14.95	16.6	0.28	1.53
Japan		0.22	0.25	3.26	2.35	3.51	0	0.22
Mexico		0.16	0.43	4.87	5.25	5.29	0	0.18


		Beginning Stocks	Production	Imports	Domestic Crush	Domestic Total	Exports	Ending Stocks
2018/19 Proj.		Beginning Stocks	Production	Imports	Domestic Crush	Domestic Total	Exports	Ending Stocks
World 2/	Dec	101.3	369.2	152.46	308.19	351.53	156.09	115.33
United States	Dec	11.92	125.18	0.68	56.61	60.08	51.71	26
	Jan	11.92	121.47	0.68	57	60.5	58		15.57
Total Foreign	Dec	89.37	244.02	151.78	251.58	291.45	104.38	89.34
Major Exporters 3/	Dec	59.86	189.8	4.41	89.68	96.98	94.17	62.92
Major Exporters 3/
Argentina	Dec	34.52	55.5	4.2	43	47.92	5	41.3
Argentina
Brazil	Dec	25.15	122	0.2	42.7	45	81	21.35
Brazil	Jan	25.15	115	0.2	44	45.5	71		23.85
Paraguay	Dec	0.18	9.8	0.01	3.9	3.98	5.8	0.21
Paraguay
Major Importers 4/	Dec	26.24	19.97	123.33	121.03	146.41	0.43	22.69
Major Importers 4/
China	Dec	23.54	16	90	92.5	109.6	0.1	19.84
China				86.29					16.13
European Union	Dec	1.53	2.7	15.8	16.6	18.25	0.28	1.5
European Union
Japan	Dec	0.22	0.26	3.3	2.35	3.52	0	0.26
Japan
Mexico	Dec	0.18	0.34	5.03	5.3	5.34	0	0.21

Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 19:41
- RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 19:54
  - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - IN555 : 1/13/2019 20:54
    - Brazil can not supply China's needs. WASDE has you duped. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 21:11
      - RE: Brazil can not supply China's needs. WASDE has you duped. - w1891 : 1/13/2019 21:41
        
        No. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 21:58
        
        RE: No. - w1891 : 1/13/2019 22:26
        
        Walking through this.. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 22:55
        
        RE: Walking through this.. - w1891 : 1/14/2019 06:12
        
        Quantitative Easing Stocks eh? - JonSCKs : 1/14/2019 08:58
        
        RE: I don't know about some of the ..... - farmer4321 : 1/13/2019 22:35
        
        We do that all the time.. - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 23:02
        
        RE: We do that all the time.. - indeeppigfarmer : 1/14/2019 05:41
        
        RE: We do that all the time.. - GrainTrader : 1/14/2019 05:43
        
        RE: We do that all the time.. - indeeppigfarmer : 1/14/2019 06:07
        
        RE: We do that all the time.. - GrainTrader : 1/14/2019 16:53
        
        RE: We do that all the time.. - IN555 : 1/14/2019 08:34
        
        They are not going to have as much as last year.. - JonSCKs : 1/14/2019 09:06
        
        RE: They are not going to have as much as last year.. - Bengal Stripes : 1/14/2019 11:10
        
        RE: They are not going to have as much as last year.. - IN555 : 1/14/2019 12:06
        
        RE: They are not going to have as much as last year.. - Bengal Stripes : 1/14/2019 12:11
        
        RE: They are not going to have as much as last year.. - IN555 : 1/14/2019 12:14
        
        RE: They are not going to have as much as last year.. - Bengal Stripes : 1/14/2019 12:41
        
        Regardless the numbers are tightening up. - JonSCKs : 1/14/2019 12:53
        
        RE: Regardless the numbers are tightening up. - Bengal Stripes : 1/14/2019 13:14
        
        On paper.. - JonSCKs : 1/14/2019 13:19
- RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - Conan the Farmer : 1/13/2019 22:32
  - Lol.. and we did it supposedly on Fringe acre increase.. ?? - JonSCKs : 1/13/2019 23:16
  - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - Don Smith : 1/14/2019 01:35
  - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - zenfarm : 1/14/2019 06:08
    - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - Conan the Farmer : 1/14/2019 10:04
      - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - zenfarm : 1/14/2019 10:49
        
        RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - Conan the Farmer : 1/14/2019 11:47
        
        RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - zenfarm : 1/14/2019 12:07
        
        RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - roarintiger1 : 1/14/2019 13:01
    - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - Conan the Farmer : 1/14/2019 10:40
  - RE: It may level off - Deere6 : 1/14/2019 06:13
    - RE: It may level off - farmernick : 1/14/2019 12:58
  - RE: A couple of comments. - farmer4321 : 1/14/2019 06:36
    - The Assumption that Brazil has filled the US void is false. - JonSCKs : 1/14/2019 09:19
  - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - IN555 : 1/14/2019 12:12
- RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - McFarmer : 1/14/2019 07:11
  - RE: Revisiting Soybean Numbers. - roarintiger1 : 1/14/2019 13:07

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