|
S Illinois | Look at the carryin from 16/17 and they can definitely do a a sub 20MMT carryout so 21+ is not out of line. The other factor is not only is the ending stocks not timed with the Brazilian growing season, but usage is also. A large chunk of those increased Brazilian exports in 18/19 have already occurred. With record shipments in Oct-Dec that 81MMT will not be reduced 1:1 with decreasing production. The big reduction from smaller production this year will not show up until the 19/20 grain balance sheet especially if the China/US dispute remains. Don’t forget Arg’s 18MMT increase. Pretty easy to pull an extra 3 MMT from there this year. | |
|