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| Your points are valid but comparing the current situation to any time in history since it's never happened before on this scale is also.. irrelevant.
In short we are in unchartered waters.. If China is going to tie up Brazil.. where do the rest of Brazil's customers go?
One thing that is confusing people is that the wasde has a hundred million metric tons of soybeans as ending stocks when it counts Argentina's 40 million metric tons and Brazil's 25 million metric tonnes three months before they get to harvest.. as "ending stocks"
Which by definition they are not.
Thus usage to ending stocks.. relationships to price etc.. are screwed up.
We don't know if China is going to come in in the second half of the u.s. grain year to buy what it would have bought in the first half as normal..
I would agree that this would be unusual but I would also make the statement that these are unusual times
Fwiw.
Everyone assumes they can get soybeans from Brazil. However given that Brazil is going to harvest a smaller crop.. that statement is not as valid as it was before.
Edited by JonSCKs 1/14/2019 12:54
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Revisiting Soybean Numbers.
