I will take the under on Brazil ending stocks coming in at 24.8 MMT and at best 45.5 MMT domestic use will be a push. You are 4-5MMT too low on what Brazil has for export at a 115MMT crop. That along with an extra 3-4MMT in exportable Arg supplies will keep the US export number under 2 BB.

Quantitative Easing for Soybean Stocks eh?

So can they PRINT stocks at will...??

Brazilian domestic demand #s, 43.66 mmts in 16/17, 45.94 in 17/18 and then the WASDE paired it BACK to 45.5 mmt's for this "projected year" with a Harvest "projection" of 122 mmt's with expected increased acres.. and some calling for 128 mmt to 130 mmt crop at the time.

Again, The WASDE uses the Calendar year.. October to September.. so the "Carry in" number of 25.15 mmt's on October 1st 2018.. has to last them through the First Quarter of usage.. Oct, Nov and Dec when they basically DO NOT have a Crop to harvest which starts at the end of December.. again they planted a lot more EARLY acres.. this year.. which have come on reduced yield.. probably partly due to maturity and the other factor is dryness at filling.. with some production area's having the warmest and dryest December in 10 years.

The bulk of their crop is coming up to harvest soon and is in the Critcal fill stage now.

The Premium of $1.50 over US values has vaporized and farmers are seeing FALLING PRICES during a DROUGHT..  How do you increase production under this scenerio?

At this point the Argentine projection is as much a guess as the Brazilian # was.. Remember that US values rallied over a Dollar.. basically from $9.60 to $10.80 last year.. from mid January to March 2018.. as Argentine conditions declined.. and they ended up with a much smaller crop.. not the 5? the WASDE predicted but 37.8 mmt crop realized.

At some point.. someone has to GROW what is Printed on paper..