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S Illinois | Yes, record Brazilian exports in Oct 18-Dec 18 has occurred and was used out of last years USDA carryover number and is part of the 81MMT in exports. This years 115-122 production number is also used for the beginning of 19/20 usage hence the numbers don’t have to equal. You are missing the final 1/4 of the year of usage of this years Brazil production that has yet to be listed which is also the most volatile. Very easy to see Brazil having used much more of their true carryover than normal in the last 3 months which leads directly into the lowering of what Brazil has on hand at the end of Sept 19. If there has to be a demand decrease due to a production shortfall in Brazil, the bulk of this will show up in the Brazil 19/20 usage. | |
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