| We did not get the January reports last week.. I started a thread below about what some.. aka.. D Newsom.. thought of USDA reports.. nothing new as he's on record of being critical.
the USDA is crazy. They never know what we have. Their last estimate was 955 million bushels of ending stocks. And let's say that's the high. Well the last 10 years USDA has averaged overestimating ending stocks by the time we get to the September quarterly stocks number by 41% and that's just an average. So if we take 41% off of 955 we're down in the 560, 570 million bushel range. And that seems to fit in better where the cash price is right now.
Fair enough.. USDA does have a HISTORY of Overestimating stocks as pointed out above.
To wit.. IN555 responded..
Once again an example of flawed math to get to someone's objective. When the carryout has been in the 100-500 range the previous 9 years and you use the percentage of error from that to determine the likely outcome this year is flawed. If stocks are predicted at 300 million and it ends up being 150 that is a 50% miss. You can't extract that into any kind of odds of a 50% miss on over 3x the basis.
Fair enough.. good points I suspect.
Let's revisit the Last Crop Progress report.. Nov 25, 2018
| | | Harvested | Not Harvested | | Bu in Field | | | | | | | | | | Missouri | | 5,730,000 | 15% | 859,500 | 46 | 39,537,000 | | Kansas | | 4,810,000 | 8% | 384,800 | 42 | 16,161,600 | | Ohio | | 4,940,000 | 10% | 494,000 | 59 | 29,146,000 | | Illinois | | 10,850,000 | 0% | 0 | 64 | 0 | | Arkansas | | 3,570,000 | 12% | 428,400 | 50 | 21,420,000 | | Iowa | | 9,840,000 | 2% | 196,800 | 58 | 11,414,400 | | Indiana | | 6,180,000 | 5% | 309,000 | 60 | 18,540,000 | | Kentucky | | 2,090,000 | 20% | 418,000 | 54 | 22,572,000 | | North Carolina | 1,590,000 | 36% | 572,400 | 35 | 20,034,000 | | Tennessee | | 1,720,000 | 17% | 292,400 | 48 | 14,035,200 | | Michigan | | 2,290,000 | 11% | 251,900 | 48 | 12,091,200 | | North Dakota | | 6,550,000 | 6% | 393,000 | 36 | 14,148,000 | | Wisconsin | | 2,290,000 | 6% | 137,400 | 49 | 6,732,600 | | Nebraska | | 5,450,000 | 1% | 54,500 | 49 | 2,670,500 | | Minnesota | | 7,740,000 | 1% | 77,400 | 50 | 3,870,000 | | South Dakota | | 5,660,000 | 0% | 0 | 49 | 0 | | Mississippi | | 2,180,000 | 3% | 65,400 | 53 | 3,466,200 | | Louisiana | | 1,370,000 | 8% | 109,600 | 50 | 5,480,000 | | | | | | | | | | Total | | 84,850,000 | 6% | 5,091,000 | 52.1 | 265,241,100 | | | | | | | | | We "assume" that "most" of the crop still out in the field has been harvested.. but how much was lost?
Also.. part of Newsom's critic is that USDA has overestimated Production.. "They never know what we have. "
USDA rely's on the Stocks Reports (also not released) and is forced to converge the two reports over time.
The US Numbers.. are well known by the Trade.. including most here who are quote their 955 myn carryout number as it is correct... ???
| December 2018 | | | | | | | | | | | WASDE - 584 - 15 | | | | | | | | | | | U.S. Soybeans and Products Supply and Use (Domestic Measure) 1/ | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | SOYBEANS | 2016/17 | 2017/18 Est. | 2018/19 Proj. | 2018/19 Proj. | | | | | Nov | Dec | |
|
|
|
|
| | | | | | Million Acres | | | | Area Planted | 83.4 | 90.1 | 89.1 | 89.1 | | | Area Harvested | 82.7 | 89.5 | 88.3 | 88.3 | | | Filler | | | Bushels | | | | Yield per Harvested Acre | 52 | 49.3 | 52.1 | 52.1 | | | | | | Million Bushels | | | | Beginning Stocks | 197 | 302 | 438 | 438 | | | Production | 4296 | 4411 | 4600 | 4600 | | | Imports | 22 | 22 | 25 | 25 | | | Supply, Total | 4515 | 4734 | 5063 | 5063 | | | Crushings | 1901 | 2055 | 2080 | 2080 | | | Exports | 2166 | 2129 | 1900 | 1900 | | | Seed | 105 | 104 | 96 | 96 | | | Residual | 41 | 8 | 32 | 32 | | | Use, Total | 4214 | 4296 | 4107 | 4107 | | | Ending Stocks | 302 | 438 | 955 | 955 | | | Avg. Farm Price ($/bu) 2/ | 9.47 | 9.33 | 7.60 - 9.60 | 7.85 - 9.35 | | | Total | | | | | |
In 16/17 we harvested 82.7 million acres.. we added 6.8 million acres to the harvested number in 17/18 but was forced to lower The Yield.. a year ago to 49.5 and now to 49.3.. they upped Domestic Crush by 155 million bushels. This year they have the yield up to 52.1 Meanwhile Private companies such as Gro Intelligence had their yield estimate as high as 51 but have lowered their estimate to 50.6.. Hence Reducing their Ending Stocks estimate to 817 million.. 138 million bushels below the December WASDE. Lowering the Harvested Acreage by 120 k to 88.18 myn acres x 50.6 = 4,462 million bushels vs the Dec WASDE at 4,600 or 121.47 mmts.
Again we do not know the Dec 1st Stocks numbers.. in order to calibrate the estimated production and or usage in the WASDE. Granted it would be tricky this year as so much of the crop was probably still out in the elements at that point.
Now Turning to Brazil.. It's January.. which means it's like July for their growing season.. about 2 months yet to go for the full story to unfold. Conab (Brazil's USDA) was out at 18.8.. However, Safras and Mercado was out at 115 mmt crop.
If so.. pluggins all this in.. US Production falls to 121.47, US Brazilian to 115. The Last WASDE took Brazilian Carryout down to 21.35 mmt's where it was 25.15 last year. It seems unlikely that they would go too far.. I bumped it 2.5 mmt's.. and added 6.29 mmt's to US exports.. lowering our Carryout to 15.57 mmt's or 572 million bushels..
Ironically about what Newsom was guestimating.. fwiw.
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | Beginning
Stocks | Production | Imports | Domestic
Crush | Domestic
Total | Exports | Ending
Stocks | | 2018/19 Proj. |
| |
|
|
|
|
| | World 2/ | Dec | 101.3 | 369.2 | 152.46 | 308.19 | 351.53 | 156.09 | 115.33 | | United States | Dec | 11.92 | 125.18 | 0.68 | 56.61 | 60.08 | 51.71 | 26 | | | Jan | 11.92 | 121.47 | 0.68 | 57 | 60.5 | 58 | | 15.57 | | Total Foreign | Dec | 89.37 | 244.02 | 151.78 | 251.58 | 291.45 | 104.38 | 89.34 | | Major Exporters 3/ | Dec | 59.86 | 189.8 | 4.41 | 89.68 | 96.98 | 94.17 | 62.92 | | | | | | | | | | | | Argentina | Dec | 34.52 | 55.5 | 4.2 | 43 | 47.92 | 5 | 41.3 | | | | | | | | | | | | Brazil | Dec | 25.15 | 122 | 0.2 | 42.7 | 45 | 81 | 21.35 | | Jan | 25.15 | 115 | 0.2 | 44 | 45.5 | 71 | | 23.85 | | Paraguay | Dec | 0.18 | 9.8 | 0.01 | 3.9 | 3.98 | 5.8 | 0.21 | | | | | | | | | | | | Major Importers 4/ | Dec | 26.24 | 19.97 | 123.33 | 121.03 | 146.41 | 0.43 | 22.69 | | | | | | | | | | | | China | Dec | 23.54 | 16 | 90 | 92.5 | 109.6 | 0.1 | 19.84 | | | | | 86.29 | | | | | 16.13 | | European Union | Dec | 1.53 | 2.7 | 15.8 | 16.6 | 18.25 | 0.28 | 1.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | Japan | Dec | 0.22 | 0.26 | 3.3 | 2.35 | 3.52 | 0 | 0.26 | | | | | | | | | | | | Mexico | Dec | 0.18 | 0.34 | 5.03 | 5.3 | 5.34 | 0 | 0.21 | | | | | | | | | | |
We know that China is buying US Soybeans.. we just really do not know how much yet.
Fire Away..
|
Revisiting Soybean Numbers.
