The Trump message is very simple and very open.. WE ALL KNOW his stance.

"The Trade Gap is TOO LARGE between the US and CHINA.. They should either:

a) buy MORE US PRODUCTS

or 

b) We WILL RESTRICT WHAT THEY CAN SELL HERE

That's all you need to know.

IF XI doesn't start buying more products.. then you can expect TRUMP to INCREASE THE TARIFFS.. and frankly who needs a new I Phone anyway?

Some are speculating that China bought Beans this week.. and they bought some pork..

Trump needs to package his "demands" in a softer tone.. (here's the real rub..) so Xi can save face.. and do the deal.

But one way OR the other the trade gap is going to close!!  And it will Hurt CHINA more than the US.. so Xi can look forward to at least 2 more years of this.. and even if we flip to a Democratic President.. this policy will probably continue.. as this protectionism is more supported by the D's than the R's anyway.

IF China digs in.. and DOES NOT increase purchases of US products.. Grains, Meal, Pork, Crude Oil.. etc..

Then in the case of Ag.. we'll probably get:

a) A Continuation of the Market Tariff payments.. which will be paid for by increased Tariffs on China stuff.. think I phones
b) probably more consideration to using more products at home.. aka biofuels.. aka the 2.25 Billion gallons of ILLEGALLY WAIVED Gallons gets redressed... probably why they are waiting on that decision.
c) Possibly Set Asides..

IF We in Ag do not get relief and China balks.. and the R's do not cave.. then we will probably/could consider the Low Carbon Fuels Standard.. which is going to grow anyway..  It's going to spread much like MTBE did by states.. as California continues to ramp up.. adding Oregon, Washington and BC Canada.. and then the east Coast.. Mass. New York.. etc..

So one way or another I think things will work out.

The elephant in the room probably more is that there are STILL a Billion bushels out in the field.. 

7??  Million Corn
2?? Million Soybeans
1?? Million Sorghum

Given the Carry in the Markets so the commercials are not going to turn loose easily.. the market is going to have to PRY bushels out from strong hands.

Note We got ANOTHER 0.50" to 0.75" there are WHOLE QUARTERS of UNHARVESTED fields of Sorghum.. some Soybeans.. more to my east and Corn.. and Cotton.

You can not tell the summerfallowed wheat from the planted wheat.. It looks like Crap.. poor stands.. big holes.. etc.. discoloration.. NOT Uniform.. OR the wheat isn't even out of the Ground.. we are probably looking at HALF of a crop for 2019.. "here" locally.

So even if China doesn't settle.. there are bullish items.

But I think there are MANY reasons for Xi to allow more US Imports.. and if he doesn't.. then expect Trump to announce more tariffs.

This is the abbreviated version.