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| I don't know how the data was collected. Do you know how the data in your chart was collected? How truthful were the ranchers who responded?
My experience with Cattle-Fax is that I trust their data much more than anything the government paper pushers ever come up with. In fact, in my modeling, I find nothing useful in the government data, but I do have confidence in Cattle-Fax data. I have had occasion to visit with the guys there personally, and they are serious about their data. Their livelihood depends on the integrity of their data. Can you say that about government employees?
Of the groups there, you *don't* think that cow/calf operators (and stockers) have been the most profitable in recent years? I have first hand knowledge of both cow/calf operations and of feedlot operations, and if you try to tell me that recent years have not been bad for feedlots and very very good for cow/calf - well - I would have to suspect that you are not well informed.
On the difference in the charts, the trends are very similar. IMHO, the dollar differences could easily be cost structures used in the calculations. It would be no surprise to me if the more successful operations were represented more by Cattle-Fax and the struggling operations by the government numbers. From personal experience, I know that rental rates for farm ground are this way - the government county averages are much lower than typical rates I have known about.
I would have to say, yes, the numbers easily pass the "smell test" - since I've actually been in the business. | |
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Lack of transparency in the cattle market
