| John Burns - 1/30/2015 18:28
Can we really successfully "model" a complex economy?
IMHO, the answer is no.
But - - I have to say that I am curious about Armstrong's model, and I will be watching it as things unfold. We should know more about how good this model is within a year. I am still very skeptical, however.
This is not unlike climate modeling. It is *assumed* that the driver for temperature is man made CO2, since it is *assumed* that it cannot be anything else. This is bad science. To get man made CO2 to have an effect large enough to warm the earth as much as it is claimed to have warmed, they need a fudge factor in the models. This fudge factor is called a "sensitivity factor" since this term sounds better than a "fudge factor". The models are curve-fit to the (poor quality) historical data (nearly all proxy data). These models are junk, but they are all the science consists of. I strongly suspect that economics has gone down a similar road. |
John - inflation/deflation - probably one after the other
