|
| John - just got back and have not yet gotten to that link you gave. I was reading Armstrong's blog, however, trying to catch up, and I thought these two articles would be interesting reads for you.
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/29/the-paradox-of-inflationde...
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2015/01/30/first-the-deflation-then-t...
Now, you need to give Martin a little leeway, as he spent a lot of time in solitary confinement. He writes and hits the post key without editing, from what I see - and I like that about his posts. Also, as I told a friend who has also known him since the early 90s, he needs a man in his chariot saying in his ear - you are mortal . . . you are mortal. You mentioned complexity - the thing about any predictions in a complex system is that they will often (actually - the word is usually) be wrong. Here he talks about some of the thinking about what might lie ahead, however, and he uses his knowledge of history to give some background for what he writes.
From one of the links:
"The hyperinflationists are linear-thinkers. They build everything upon the idea that an increase in money supply MUST result in rising prices and thus inflation. They assume a one-dimensional fixed relationship and cannot see the binary aspects of DEMAND that produce the bull and bear market trends. To them, they are locked into this primitive archaic thinking process that there must be a single relationship that is constant. They cannot grasp for an instant the dynamics of the real world."
| |
|
John - inflation/deflation - probably one after the other
