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John - inflation/deflation - probably one after the other
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cfdr
Posted 1/30/2015 13:06 (#4349897 - in reply to #4349851)
Subject: RE: John - inflation/deflation - probably one after the other


I think it a case more of what time window is being considered. The hyperinflation alarmists have, from what I've read, been talking very short term. (I do not include you in this category, John.) What we've been hearing is how the dollar *must go* to zero - and do it now. The dollar *has to* lose its world reserve currency status - and lose it now. If all we had been reading was this forum, we would know this. From my reading of Martin, he has been saying, sure, some of that can happen, but first the dollar is going to get a whole lot stronger. And, it certainly has. I think I see the Fed backing away from their recent path, as creating all that new money has not had the desired result. The world has absorbed all of that money and demanded even more. I believe this is what Martin has been talking about. Will they stop short of forcing the dollar to zero? Who knows. Martin is talking about a new world reserve currency, but stopping short of anticipating that it will replace the dollar for domestic use, as I read. It has to be extremely frustrating to not be in control of your own currency. The biggest argument against the dollar going to zero is that the people in charge might lose power. Again - the carrot and the stick - right? Is there any better way to evaluate the possibility of hyperinflation?

I don't get to the same conclusions that you must get to when reading his posts, however. He regularly talks about the government bond market collapsing. He talks about the probable movement from public to private investments. His guess is that, rather than simply print an unlimited amount of money, the politicians will choose some kind of default, as I understand him. Purely for self-preservation. But he *does say* that we will lose confidence in government and public debt - after the major blow-up.

I believe that it's important to admit to ourselves that predictions of the future will always be highly unreliable. This is the nature of a highly complex chaotic system. A month from now, Armstrong might be dead wrong about what he is saying. But, for now, I don't know of anyone who has been as good as he has been in seeing what might be coming. Just my opinion, of course.
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