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ASF Should increase feed usage?
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AVP_Matt
Posted 4/11/2019 12:34 (#7433139 - in reply to #7433048)
Subject: RE: Most obvious statement on the internet.


Hennepin, IL
Stop and think. This isnt just about live pigs vs dead pigs.

Scenario:
Say Chinese demand for MEAT basically stays static. Might be a big if right now, but very plausible. Short term, yes, dead pigs eat less than live pigs. However if diets switch to birds or imported beef or pork in the short term, they still eat more than a dead pig, maybe not as much as a live one, but still. Here's the other thing: all these replacement animals that China is going to need, they dont come out of thin air. They eat more than dead pigs, and arguably will eat more in the short term as they are growing than the live counterparts they replaced. Those replacements then wont move into the food supply for awhile as they're bred and produce the next round of replacements or first round of market animals.

Not exactly the bearish picture everyone wants to paint, at least not in the longer view. The bearish side would be if this converts Chinese diets to birds in the long term.

Edit: I've had the same thoughts as Bonpas for awhile now, just haven't felt like writing the essay until now. Feel free to pick it apart, wouldnt be the first time I was accused of being starved of oxygen lol.

Edited by AVP_Matt 4/11/2019 12:39
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