Posted 4/11/2019 13:07 (#7433222 - in reply to #7432909) Subject: RE: ASF Should increase feed usage?
Any reduction in animals is a reduction in corn, soybean use. What is the most scary is when ASF arrives here. 2-5 years I have heard depending on who you talk to. Once it is found here, no animal movement will be allowed. Pigs won't be able to leave farrowing units, exports will immediately stop, affected pigs will be euthanized to try to contain it, demand for grain will not go up. How long until export market reopens? What will that look like to midwest ag when one in 4 or 5 pigs is not needed? Will a contract finishing company consider it falls under the ACT of God clause in the contracts they have when they don't have the pigs to fill finishing space? How will a new finisher built at $350/pig space with a 15 year note work when payments stop? China is a big deal and we need pork exports but if they have animals dying that they can't keep alive that is not good for demand of grains. When the disease shows up in the US it is going to be even worse for grains. Just my opinion.