Posted 4/11/2019 13:34 (#7433274 - in reply to #7433192) Subject: RE: Most obvious statement on the internet.
Well one thing you’re not going to do is go down to the local meat proteins are us store and procure replacement pounds of animal protein to cover your shortfall.
Let’s even ruminate here abit, say all of these meat eating Chinese, aren’t going to give up on a portion their animal protein diet, beef’s kinda spendy, fish, well we see how they raise the fish here, send that over to the Americans. So we got poultry( chickens, ducks, turkeys, etc.).
So it isn’t like they have barns full of chicks in suspended animation.... so there is some lead and lag times, in our country the poultry business is pretty well integrated, so many hens lay eggs, so many eggs are hatched, so many broilers are placed, so many broilers are harvested, it’s not like there are barns sitting around empty waiting for a upturn in broiler consumption, so even if there were these phantom barns in existence, still got to get the chicks.
Gotta set more hens to lay the eggs for the hens that will lay the eggs for the broilers, so there is just about a year for that, and then you got seven more months to start getting the broiler chicks out the hatchery door.
So just a shade over a year and a half to gain any appreciable volume in broiler production, and we aren’t even talking about barns or anything else. Commercial chicken production falls under the same scenario where ever in the world it takes place
So I assume that everybody in their way of thinking are considering the Chinese backyard chicken producer, well remember the bird flue of a few years ago, it hit the Chinese hard, and they took measures to try to prevent a reoccurrence, so flock sizes are restricted to certain number, and if they are larger than that then they have to registered, but the Chinese people seem to be pretty innovative in thwarting their governments rules, so it’s hard to say how many of these big backyard flocks exist.
But even then itks gonna take at least 8 months to see any appreciable rise in production in their own country.