Posted 4/11/2019 16:10 (#7433580 - in reply to #7433381) Subject: RE: ASF Should increase feed usage?
I don’t think this run up took to many in the industry by surprise. It was a slow time coming once ASF was confirmed...and I really thought China was dragging their feet on importing from us. Just a side note, currently a 62% tariff on our hog exports to them....sure there is....that’s the official line but as things get a little more concerning I’m sure a non democratic society can massage that a little. So as sure as this thing rose it will fall....and I have no idea on when.
I am a believer in Andrews pitchfork, I don’t know what “ signs” were pointing to this rise. I do however, think there could be more clear “signs” of the fall. And then of course an announcement of ASF here could just be a black swan without any clues.
Tell you what...any hog producer wants to ride this thing as hard as you can to try to make up for last year, and I understand that, but that thing could sink a lot if / when it turns and you’re not protected adequately.