Posted 4/11/2019 11:34 (#7432982 - in reply to #7432909) Subject: RE: ASF Should increase feed usage?
South Central Iowa
I think the consumption would not dip near what the death loss is. I agree with your point, and consumption would really only be cut by the difference between normal slaughter weights and average terminal weight of the death loss. So if 10% of hogs die globally and they make it to 50% of weight, that’s a 5% reduction in feed.
But it wouldn’t even be that, because producers would be feeding out more gilts to become sows. That would be the hard gain that uses more grain and oilseed. So really that demand would be cut in the above example by less than 5%, maybe half as much. So we might be talking 300-500 million bushel of bean demand destruction? Or maybe just not an increase in global usage as we were growing annually before?
The big impact will be the high pork prices and cuts in pork consumption, near-term 1-3 years. There will be a shortage of pork, mostly because the global producers will be trying to replenish breeding stocks which reduces the amount for slaughter. But that wouldn’t impact feed usage as drastically as some might think.