Posted 4/11/2019 11:00 (#7432909) Subject: ASF Should increase feed usage?
Been pondering since the ASF problem exploded.
Assuming the Chinese consumption of pork does not change or changes only a little, it would appear to me that whether a 50lb pig, 240 fat or even a sow dies.........the feed in that animal was totally wasted. Looks to me like it would take WAY MORE corn and bean meal to get their herd back to normal levels than if there was never any ASF? If 1/3 of their entire herd will be decimated, why would that not be the same as feed efficiency going DOWN; whereby, total feed use goes UP? Maybe not a 1:1 ratio.......but close?
If their consumption goes to feathers or rice or fish or......then I completely understand feed usage falling off. But if I am a 20 year old that has eaten a little pork with my rice for the last ten years, I doubt I just eat all rice for a few years until the herd can be rebuilt.
I believe the market...................and so far the market tells me I am wrong. Just not sure why?
Who has friends there? How much has a individual bowl of rice with pork changed in the last few months? $1? $2? 5 cents? No change?