Posted 4/10/2019 20:27 (#7431782 - in reply to #7431673) Subject: RE: Farm sector debt,inflation adjusted 1970-2019
AGDEAL - 4/10/2019 19:49
So what does a young guy do? I am not saying get stupid but when opportunities (retiring neighbors) knock you kinda gotta answer the door sometimes. I want a paid for land base someday
Terrific question. And an absolute conundrum for a younger guy who’s first land purchase could easily start with $7000 acre. The fact is you’ll spend a good share of your whole career just getting that first purchase paid for. I wish I had an easy answer for you, but the best advice I could give is continue to be patient. I’m seeing some rather dramatic decreases in land values. Look at the post on the Floyd county iowa sale yesterday, That was some pretty prime dirt. And it was still way, way, too much for a young guy to bite off. If the guy that bought that ground yesterday decided four years ago (when he damn sure could have bought some ground when it looked like good times were here to stay), to wait a bit and see how this all plays out, he would have been rewarded rather handsomely for his patience. Buying land at these prices is a rich mans game. So where does that leave you? If you have money for a down payment on a piece of ground, I’d suggest instead to find some income real estate, commercial or residential. That will satisfy your desire to be in the real estate game, at much more economic sense. Real estate tycoons do not bid the margins out of their market, unlike farmers. Your competition for a property will know what his expected ROI is, and it for damn sure will be double digit, and he will not overpay just to have it cuz it adjoins another property he already owns. I’m sorry to say, but today’s agriculture is over saturated with folks willing to work for nothing. Or less. And that’s your competition. Go do something where you get paid well for your time for the next decade. I really don’t foresee this getting any better for at least that long. Someday after acquiring enough properties and letting the tenants pay for them for you, you could sell off a few and exchange for land. By then you may not want to. Shoot me an email if you wish. This is a good discussion going on here, and one that needs to be seriously had. Edit too add; The best opportunities occur during the toughest of times. We’re not there yet. Not by a long shot. The best opportunity ever to get into the hog business was when they hit $8.00 cwt. I know of an outfit that still had the cash to buy another farrow to finish operation lock, stock, and barrel at that time. And the very next year they made bank the likes of which I’ve yet too see matched anywhere. It took some balls to do what they did. But it sure didn’t take much cash, at least not for what that got.