Posted 4/10/2019 23:06 (#7432161 - in reply to #7431373) Subject: RE: Farm sector debt,inflation adjusted 1970-2019
South Central MN
Interest % is lower, although crop input prices are probably quite a few % higher when all is indexed. At some point things need to drop in price, but going to take a lot of pressure to do so. Was not too many years ago a bag of fully traited corn seed could be had for less than what a bag of conventional seed sells for now. The companies that control said traits are going to resist lowering prices until they don't sell any at all, and then we get to see the ripple effect spread through more than just the AG sector.
True or not I don't know 100% but have heard it said the AG sector sees recessions (and to some extent recoveries) about 1-2 years before other sectors of the markets will, in that case nearly everyone will be having a bad day sometime in the future if we go in depression the next year or two. Still not sure how it would all shake out though, plenty of operations needing to cut costs but then another one just keeps cranking out the high priced payments for something.