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C IL | I think revenue is very regional.
Here, 2015 was rough for corn, decent for beans, depended if you hit the market right on beans.
2016 had 2/3 of a corn crop here while others had 125% of aph, decent beans, and close to max ARC-CO pmt for 2015 corn in fall 2016. That wasn't fun but ARC took some sting out so it was just bad, not horrible.
This year looks like decent to excellent beans in the mid-9's and over APH corn, with almost 2/3's of 2015's ARC-CO pmt for 2016. Yields here on this farm will be the best of the past 3 years, looks like.
Revenue will not be horrible, inputs coming down, can't count on another big yielding year next year, though, so that should keep a cap on exuberant inputs. Have done a pretty good job cutting expenses, going to be interesting with seed guys. On the one hand, they had excellent performance this year, locally. On the other hand, they have a huge hangover from prior years where they may need to continue to adjust down.
Prepay expenses tells me there is no income crisis on some of these farms, keep operating money borrowed to keep taxes down. Probably a lot of folks held grain over from last year and had to dump in September, created a cash tax liability but tells little about accrual profitability for guys who showed a loss, or min income for 2016.
I'm not saying it's fun, but it looks like the market is adjusting land input prices. Also, my marketing guy tells me guys still have outrageous family living overhead, like 150k/yr. I never got close to that, so it seems unbelievable, but I didn't farm huge acres during the run up.
Sorry for your frustrations. I felt like that the last two years, this year looks decent.
Edited by sand85 10/22/2017 21:23
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$$$ are going to be way short this year.
