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Napanee, Ontario | Very simple question:
Why, in your opinion, have cow numbers been declining, if not for the lack of profit they can achieve?
I see you mentioned weather in the other post...but come on now, we all know that goes back to profit right? bad weather, no pasture, have to buy expensive feed.....cuts profit.
We run over a cpl hundred cows and have since 1975. Before that we were dairy. I have only been involved in the operation since the 80's, when I was old enough to walk and and hold a manure shovel. We now have most of our own pasture and can make all our own feed except perhaps 10-15% that has to be bought on rented standing hay.
Currently with today's prices we are looking at north of 600-650 /hd selling our stockers at feeder wt and up to 900 lbs. And while some years we were certainly over 100/hd as your chart has indicated, others we were less than 0. We got by working off farm jobs and land appreciation that we could borrow against for expansion. It has been an absolute grind for nearly our entire lives... but it is all worth something now. If you have been consistently over 150/hd during the 2000's and post BSE years, I applaud you. But i tend to think that most were in the situation like shadow described for his experience, and ours. Hence why so many have left, and cow numbers have steadily declined.
With respect to the charts, as I said in the original post, I'll give you that most producers would likely under-report profits to a gov't poll vs a third party like cattle fax. The point of my questions, and as I alluded to in the original post, was how do we know if any of these numbers are accurate? In either chart?
The point of me posting the USDA chart was to show you that there is certainly a large divergence of data points between information sources, and there is no way to verify its accuracy. Anyone can call up producers and make up a chart. Just like producers (or packers) can tell the guy on the phone anything. To me, this nuance renders the information nearly useless.
Well, it looks like we have reached an impasse on this argument! Truthfully, i really did enjoy hashing it out with you cfdr, and although i can come across chippy (i know, ive been told), i really appreciate the challenge and consideration to actually have some discussion on the matter. And i think we both learned a little more about each other and our backgrounds, which I always enjoy. Till next time ;) | |
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Have packers beat the dog so much it won't come when they call
