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| I find not much to disagree with in your post. A few thoughts/questions:
That was interesting about Walmart. *If* there is a villain in this business, I've thought all along that it is with the big retailers. (I haven't actually done the math to know if there really is a villain, however.)
1. Absolutely correct. This is getting to a critical level, as the trend continues on.
2. Yes. And, this makes me think that the profit margins might be pretty thin, or else a member owned packing plant would at least limp along.
3. I'd question this. This would require common price fixing on the upside, and the problems with something like this seem overwhelming for private companies. More likely, it is normal market action.
5. Yes. Can't we see this in rental rates in cow/calf country? Pastures in grass states have to be fully stocked. Ground that used to be pastured is being farmed. To increase production, marginal ground needs to go back to grass, and the smaller operator needs to be enticed back to the business. This might take some time, but we have *always* had more people who wanted to be cowboys than demand for cowboys, so eventually, it probably will change. I remember in the late 70s when people who had a small piece of grass would put a few cows on it. I'd be interested in hearing from people in the SE US on what the chances of this might be in the next few years - now that it seems the droughts have at least hesitated.
6. Again - makes me question the "excess profits" of the packing industry.
7. Absolutely. The problem, as stated above, I think, is that there pastures are pretty much stocked. To rent grass out here in the west (SD, at least) is not cheap. But, yes, prices need to be at least this high to have the possibility of more numbers in the years ahead. I only hope demand holds up. | |
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Have packers beat the dog so much it won't come when they call
