Total planted acres are mostly flat.. we might have a slight build over the last couple of years.. but we lose a couple to development also.. The big swings occur from crop to crop.. Such as ripping up Alfalfa to Corn.. Beans to Corn.. Cotton to Corn.. and Wheat to Corn.. All of this happened with $7.00 corn.. and all of it can go back.
In 08/09 we planted 63.2 myn acres of wheat.. this year.. only 56.2.. down 7 myn acres.. For awhile.. corn prices were higher then wheat this past year.. now it's over $2.00 cheaper..
Corn acreage will be down next year.. only question is how much..?? 2.5 or 3.5 myn back to wht.. 1.75 to 2.95 to beanies.. 0.45 to 0.9 back to cotton.. 0.25 back to alfalfa.. some to grass/pasture.. etc..
All in all.. 4.95 to 7.5'ish.. say 6.25 myn acres.. x .92 x 135 = 775'ish myn bushels.. as these acres do not yield as much.. although the irrigated cotton ground in the south is pretty good.. Ms. La and Ga averaged over 180..
fwiw. |