No doubt we're gonna come back to this post during the winter and after the stocks reports so let's summarize what we've learned..


First, about 3.4% of the total US crop was harvested before Sept 3rd from these states..

Al brought in 45 myn bu x .06 harvested on Sept 3rd = 2.7 myn bu of 13/14 New Crop delivered in the 12/13 crop year..

Ar 155.6 x .24 = 37.3

Ga 84.2 x .53 = 44.6

Ky 247 x .01 = 2.5

La 121 x .74 = 89.5

Ms 146.7 x .35 = 51.3*  Again we do not know the exact percentage but they were done by 4th week of Sept and 14% done on 8/25th..

NC 121.8 x .21 = 25.6

SC 44.2 x .37 = 16.4

Tn 130 x .02 = 2.6

Tx 283 x .59 = 167

 So that sums to 439.5 myn bushels that was harvested in the 12/13 crop year.. So now this becomes..

say 439 myn bu got harvested THIS year before Sept 3rd.. and say 276 myn bu got somewhere and fed..(OR 12/13 crop was overstated..)  and the other 163 was sitting in a bin..  USDA found the 163 and raised it's ending carryout from 661 to 824..   The Feed and Residual # is backed in from the previous year.. well we raised..10,781.. carried in 989 imported 162 = 11,932  then we Crushed/milled 1,366.. converted to ethanol 4,648 used 30 as seed.. exported 731.. and the Stocks report says we had 824 left over.. SO.. that must mean that we fed.. the balance of 4,333

When in fact we pulled 439 myn bu forward.. fed.. 276 + 4,333 = 4,609 padded the carry IN number with the other 163.. AND COUNTED the WHOLE 439 myn bushels AGAIN.. in the CROP size of 13,989 as available for 13/14... which drawing a line in the sand of Sept 1st.. REALLY becomes.. 13,989 - 439= 13,550..  WHICH.. is pretty dang close to yours truely's estimate..   "uh-hum" of the Corn crop size harvested (post Sept 1st)

So we REALLY have the 13,550 + 824 = 14,374 + 25 imports = 14,399 vs the 14,837 that USDA has on it's books... and therefore the REAL carry out number is gonna become.. 439 myn bu less or.. 1,887 - 439 = 1448 myn bushels + whatever is harvested before Sept 1st 2014..

Furthermore, the forecasted feed number of 5,200 doesn't look so humongous when compared to what was ACTUALLY Fed in 12/13 of 4,609 vs the reported and WRONG # of 4,333... when some talking head says..  "well golly there's no way we go from 4,333 to 5.200... blah blah blah..."       


So in effect.. for whatever reasons.. after harvesting 439 myn bushels before Sept 3rd USDA found 824 myn in stocks.. so either 12/13 crop was overstated.. OR feed useage was understated.  And this descripency will again show up in the next stocks reports.. subject to changes in what the other 96.6% of the 13/14 harvested crop did..  The Quantitative Feeding USDA used on it's books to recognize 12/13 demand with a 13/14 crop by adding 100 myn bu to 13/14 feeding.. aka.. recognizing feed useage that happened in the LAST YEAR.. was mostly missed by the trade...


..  "and that is how they did it."