59% of the Texas Corn crop was harvested by Sept 1st 2013...

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Texas/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/

WASDE has Texas at 2.1 myn harvested acres x 138 = 290 myn bu x .59 = 171 myn bu of corn harvested by Sept 1st..

89% of Louisianna's crop was brought in by Sept 1st..

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Louisiana/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/index.asp   

WASDE has La at 0.74 x 180 = 133 myn bu x 0.89 = 119 myn bushels..


Mississippi did not report a percentage but reported that..

"..harvest activities were at full speed, with most corn yields being good to excellent."

http://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/Mississippi/Publications/Crop_Progress_&_Condition/cw090313.txt


WASDE has Ms at 0.9 x 180 = 162 x ???  IF La was .74.. then Ms ought to be close.. 0.60 (??) = 98 myn bu..


Just from those 3 states.. we have 171 + 119 + 98 (??) = 388 myn bushels of 2013 planted corn harvested by the end of the 12/13 crop year..  Now I believe USDA DOUBLE COUNTED this production and here is how.. from below..

 say 388 myn bu got harvested THIS year before Sept 1st.. and say 225 myn bu got somewhere and fed..  and the other 163 was sitting in a bin..  USDA found the 163 and raised it's ending carryout from 661 to 824..   The Feed and Residual # is backed in from the previous year.. well we raised..10,781.. carried in 989 imported 162 = 11,932  then we Crushed/milled 1,366.. converted to ethanol 4,648 used 30 as seed.. exported 731.. and the Stocks report says we had 824 left over.. SO.. that must mean that we fed.. the balance of 4,333

When in fact we pulled 388 myn bu forward.. fed.. 225 + 4,333 = 4,558 padded the carry IN number with the other 163.. AND COUNTED the WHOLE 388 myn bushels AGAIN.. in the CROP size of 13,989 as available for 13/14... which drawing a line in the sand of Sept 1st.. REALLY becomes.. 13,989 - 388 = 13,601..  WHICH.. is pretty dang close to yours truely's estimate..   "uh-hum" of the Corn crop size harvested (post Sept 1st)

So we REALLY have the 13,601 + 824 = 14,425 + 25 imports = 14,450 vs the 14,837 that USDA has on it's books... and therefore the REAL carry out number is gonna become.. 388 myn bu less or.. 1,887 - 388 = 1499 myn bushels.

Furthermore, the forecasted feed number of 5,200 doesn't look so humongous when compared to what was ACTUALLY Fed in 12/13 of 4,558 vs the reported and WRONG # of 4,333... when some talking head says..  "well golly there's no way we go from 4,333 to 5.200... blah blah blah..."  


I'm posting this (again) because right out of the gate this morning.. one analyst said.. "we don't believe USDA's feed number at 5,200 it s TOO BIG of a jump from last year's.. 4,333.. blah blah blah.."

First off.. LAST YEAR's REAL feed number is understated as I show above probably more like 4,560.. or possibly higher...???  AND WE FED over 300 myn bushels of WHEAT.. + (310 bu of 60 lbs wht/ 56 lbs corn = ) 332 = 4,890  and NOW Corn is over $2.00 CHEAPER...  So.. honestly is 5,200 high enough? 

Or is the real number higher...???  5,400... 5,500...???  Not gonna feed much wheat this year...

Secondly the corn that was HARVESTED and FED before Sept 1st.. like the stuff that was RAILED up here in AUGUST from South Texas.. from an area that started shelling corn in JULY... IS NOT AVAILABLE in the 2013/14 Balance sheet.. It's GONE.. Good bye.. kaput.. the end.  This is why we see the USDA lose 400 myn bushels of corn on the Stocks reports in Dec...  (well golly must still be out in the field..) and the March reports.. (huh?.. still missing eh..???)


Now granted.. each year South Texas, La and Ms plants corn and harvests when It's mature but THIS YEAR there was a BIG PREMIUM to get that corn in and out early...  So that is WHY IT MATTERS...  Next year.. this ground could go to cotton.. or soybeans.. or whatever.. so the argument that....  "so what.. the carryout will be filled with Early harvested 2014 corn in August of 2014.."  To which I will concede.. BUT the demand numbers.. and the stocks numbers ARE WRONG.. and we have FUNDS Sitting on shorts..

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/ag_lf.htm


to the tune of 84,272 contracts or ..  421.3 Myn bushels.. maybe as much as USDA's phantom corn bushels on it's books right now..


That is SIGNIFICANT.. and I just wanted to point that out..


btw.. if anyone wants to purchase my corn.. with the board being up $.05.. I'll lower my offer basis to .. + $1.66 the march.. or $6.10 
If you can find a better deal.. by all means.. be my guest.


Later..