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| So you're saying that the carryout could really be 62% smaller then what the USDA said it was? I'm not saying you're wrong, but you are using USDA numbers to try and disprove other USDA numbers, seems a little off. What if their crop progress estimates weren't correct, not even 62% but only 31% off, then your estimation of the balance sheet would look a whole lot different.
We can all argue about what the USDA says and does, but until a more accurate and comprehensive estimation system comes out (that someone is going to reveal and not just trade for themselves) that's what we're stuck with. There were times that things felt a lot tighter then a 824 carryout, I also know of a lot of people that will say the crop this year is larger then 160.4 (I'm one of them). The market will figure it out.
At the end of the day, exports are going to drive our carryout for 13-14, and they look good right now. However if you think that's what's going to get us back in the $5+ range, it's not. The US is not the lowest cost producer of corn or soybeans, Eastern Europe and South America can beat us almost every time. The US is however, the world's preffered place to carry a surplus. | |
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Smoking gun on the lost it found it corn stocks number.
