We already have 400 myn bushels "on the books" over half of what we've sold in this tight stocks year.

CORN - UNMILLED                                     MARKETING YEAR 09/01 - 08/31
   OUTSTANDING EXPORT SALES AND EXPORTS BY COUNTRY, REGION AND MARKETING YEAR
1000 METRIC TONS       AS OF August 8 2013
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      :      CURRENT MARKETING YEAR         :NEXT MARKETING YEAR
                       ---------------------------------------------------------
                      :OUTSTANDING SALES:ACCUMULATED EXPORTS: OUTSTANDING SALES
                       ---------------------------------------------------------
   DESTINATION        :THIS WEEK: YR AGO:THIS WEEK: YR AGO  :SECOND YR: THIRD YR
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOTAL KNOWN           :  1635.9   2266.9   17105.3  36690.2     7007.4      22.0
TOTAL UNKNOWN         :   308.5    653.4       0.0      0.0     3130.7       0.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL KNOWN & UNKNOWN :  1944.4   2920.3   17105.3  36690.2    10138.1      22.0
EXPORTS FOR OWN ACCT  :       -        -       0.0      0.0          -         -
OPTIONAL ORIGIN       :    65.0      0.0         -        -      148.0       0.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

http://www.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/corn.htm


Honestly as w1891 points out I could see 13/14 US corn exports of 1,400 myn to 1,850 myn.. 2,000 myn if China gets serious..  If you want.. trim 125 from etoh and add 300 to exports.

Tara ,I added yield back from an earlier update..to USDA's number but I could see the final number also going lower..  (could come up a little also..)   I believe this year was more like 2011 than 2009..  Here our early early (which most did..) dryland was trying to pollinate in 105 degree heat.. 10..15..20% didn't even set an ear or has poor fill.. vs 2009.. In 2009 the WORST field we harvested did about 100..  Kansas doesn't matter that much.. but large chunks of Nebraska dryland (SC part..) Western Iowa has been stressed as of late...  Certainly NOT like here.. but not utopia either..

The morning tv news just showed a clip on recovery from the drought.. and a dryland field west of me.. pretty much burnt to a crisp.. probably will not make 30 bu.. However, there are a few fields of early late season dryland that the rains came in time for.. and their will probably be some 100+ bu dryland corn also this year.. "here" but that's mostly the exception..  I-35 corridor.. if it didn't flood out will probably average above that.. etc.. Pockets of Good to Really Good as well as pockets of poor to Really poor.. kind of like the wheat crop here.. some did 85+ mostly to my east... some did 5.. mostly to my west.  I searched for the clip but they do not have it up yet..

http://articles.kwch.com/keyword/drought

Anywho.. back to the US as a whole..

      
  
I deferred on the yield debate above.. but I'd say 2010's 152.8 or 2011's 147.2 is in the ballpark.. all in all with the added acres from 2009.. we're probably 8 to 10 to 15 bu below that Record yielding year.. 2009 is an outlier.. We did NOT do that this year... too many dings across the country.   


There's some really good irrigated..Todd said he had some 250 potential.. ditto Nebraska.. good corn in Illinois.. and the usual places.. good chunk in Iowa.. as well as some not so good.. In 2009 as long as it made it.. it was "Really good" mostly all over.. 


Tara do you even look at a drought monitor map...???


      
  

What if ANYTHING about that reminds you of 2009...?????