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JonSCKs

Posted 8/15/2013 18:47 (#3269728 - in reply to #3269712)
Subject: Updated burn rate..

This all becomes a serious WAG at some point.. but may be helpful none the less.. ?? Again all I am arguing is that the timing of the cliff.. and with above maybe the size of the cliff.. which could (and should) be corrected on the board.. (made some progress there today..) tomorrow...???


Assumptions		Planted		Harvested	Yield	Bushels
								Sept 1st	989
	USDA	97.4	0.915	89.121	154.431	13763.05		Dec 1st	8033
	Used	94	0.92	86.48	155	13404.4		Mar 1st	5400
	JonSCKs	94	0.92	86.48	155	13404.4		June 1st	2764
						Add
			Stocks	% Harvested		Harvested	Total	Use	Stocks
				Total	that week	bushels
This	Week							150	1595
	46			0.0005	0.0005	7	1602	150	1452
August 1st	47			0.0020	0.0015	20	1472	165	1307
	48			0.0038	0.0018	24	1331	170	1161
	49			0.0068	0.003	40	1201	180	1021	Q 4 useage/wk
	50			0.0107	0.0039	52	1073	185	888	2011	2012
	51			0.0175	0.0068	91	980	190	790
	52			0.0275	0.01	134	924	205	719	166	174
Sept 1st	1		719	0.0400	0.0125	168	886	230	656	2158	2267
	2			0.06	0.02	268	924	245	679
	3			0.08	0.0225	302	981	255	726	Harvested
	4			0.12	0.0375	503	1229	265	964	prior to
Oct 1st	5			0.20	0.08	1072	2036	275	1761	Sept 1st	369
	6			0.29	0.09	1206	2967	285	2682
	7			0.40	0.11	1474	4157	300	3857	3rd wk	1106
	8			0.60	0.2	2681	6538	315	6223
Nov 1st	9			0.78	0.18	2413	8635	325	8310
	10			0.87	0.09	1206	9517	320	9197	Q 1 useage/wk
	11			0.93	0.06	804	10001	320	9681	2013	2011
	12			0.96	0.03	402	10083	330	9753
	13			0.98	0.02	268	10021	300	9721	290	287
Dec 1st	14		9721	0.99	0.01	134	9855	285	9570	3765	3731
	15			1.00	0.01	134	9704	250	9454
	16					0	9454	235	9219
	17					0	9219	215	9004
Jan 1st	18					0	9004	205	8799	Total Use til Jan 1st		6145

Edited by JonSCKs 8/15/2013 18:48

updated numbers. fwiw. - JonSCKs : 8/15/2013 18:33
- Updated burn rate.. - JonSCKs : 8/15/2013 18:47
  - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - 1234 : 8/15/2013 19:40
- Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Ethanol insider : 8/15/2013 20:27
  - Re: the blend wall? - 1234 : 8/15/2013 21:01
    - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Bengal Stripes : 8/15/2013 21:07
      - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Ethanol insider : 8/15/2013 21:17
        
        yup. - JonSCKs : 8/15/2013 21:38
        
        Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Ethanol insider : 8/15/2013 21:51
        
        yipper.. - JonSCKs : 8/15/2013 22:10
    - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Ethanol insider : 8/15/2013 21:14
      - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Sat : 8/15/2013 21:30
- RE: updated numbers. fwiw. - Tara Farms : 8/15/2013 23:34
  - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - w1891 : 8/16/2013 06:45
    - Exports - JonSCKs : 8/16/2013 07:52
      - RE: Exports - John Burns : 8/16/2013 15:04
  - RE: Exports of corn - Citi Farms : 8/16/2013 07:40
  - Re: updated numbers. fwiw. - Bengal Stripes : 8/16/2013 13:11

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