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Something to ponder....
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john holland
Posted 2/19/2021 22:39 (#8845812 - in reply to #8845544)
Subject: RE: Something to ponder....


SE MN
Based on the info I could find, trendline would be 179.1. Keep in mind the trendline is a linear fit to good and bad years. Also keep in mind that actual yield is greater than trendline more often than it is below trendline (this is possible because when it is below trendline, it is far below and when it is above trendline, it is usually only slightly above). If one assumes a normal year, and you believe in a linear trendline, 179.5 seems like a good starting place given that we know nothing useful about the growing season yet. Looking at the data, a linear trendline seems like the best fit to me, so claims of a non-linear trendline are wishful thinking without extraordinary evidence.

As far as using a yield that has never been achieved, looking at data starting in 1988, the following years had yields never before achieved:
1989
1990
1992
1994
2003
2004
2009
2014
2016
2017
2018
That's 11 out of 32 years reporting the highest average yield ever. Seeing as the last two years haven't been all that great, and the historical average that 1/3 years is a record, predicting a record for the coming season doesn't seem so crazy to me. Remember to not mix up what you want to happen with what you think will happen.
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