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Something to ponder....
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john holland
Posted 2/20/2021 13:42 (#8846829 - in reply to #8846102)
Subject: RE: ^^^^ This isn't spot on

I'm not calling for anything. The original poster seemed to declare that because the prediction was a record that it must be ridiculous. I was attempting to show that not only was it not out of the question, but was well within reasonable expectation. Keep in mind that corn yields are not coin flips. Coin flips have the benefit that they can go on as long of a run as needed to average out a previous run. Yields cannot be as high as they want to be and there is a historical pattern for how long runs can last. These things constrain what is likely (all based on a linear trend). The linear trend could be maintained if we were below the line for the next 20 years and then had a 300 bu average yield, but physical reality says that is not worth considering.

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