Posted 2/20/2021 10:33 (#8846485 - in reply to #8846102) Subject: RE: ^^^^ This isn't spot on
I don’t believe anyone is calling for record yield because of the last two years, but rather in spite of the last two years. As long as the trend is still applicable, each year below trend does increase the likelihood of record yields in the following years. Much in the same way TA works with crop insurance, trend means each years potential increases no matter what prior years did. Since there is no high, extreme above trend yield sitting out there as was the case in 94 or 04, that 1-1.5 bu yearly increase become cumulative. That record yield 3 years ago would be 3-4bu higher if that exact same weather occurred this upcoming year.
The only way to argue that the record yields are not likely is if trend is no longer applicable. 2 years is tough to make that calculation on.