farmer4321 - 9/16/2018 12:42

ROI, well that depends. The way I'd estimate that is thus. Let's say he gets lucky and the basis goes from -$1.70 to a more normal -$.70 but then never changes much over the course of the subsequent years. Then he captures $.50 carry for all four years. By my way of thinking, the first profit he would see is $.50 in year five. If you average that $.50 profit over the five years then that's $.10 a year on $3 investment which looks like a 3.3% return. If you subtract interest @ 5% (or opportunity costs) then the interest for the first five years is -$.75 so you've actually lost $.25 by year five.
I guess it all depends on how you think about it.