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Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork
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Posted 4/14/2019 13:23 (#7438879 - in reply to #7436896)
Subject: RE: Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork

Alton, Ia
Kooiker - 4/13/2019 08:15

north1 - 4/13/2019 09:03 Few questions to throw out, with no political connotations: 1. I would assume the hogs lost in China would be raised somewhere else. Therefore, those places would then need the soybeans. One of them being right here at home in the good ole USA.

They are losing sows at a rate far far faster than what they can be replaced.

It takes a minimum of 2 years from the time you decide to build a new sow unit until those hogs will come to market.

How many Million$ do you want to invest betting on China to keep buying the pork 2+ yrs from now?     IF they ever get it under control and rebuild their herd they will quit buying US pork as soon as they can.

How many millions are you wanting to invest betting on that ASF won't come to the US before those 2 yrs are up?    If it comes here our export market dies immediately, we export ~25% of the pork we produce, domestic prices will crash.    The media frenzy will kill domestic pork demand for the hogs that don't die from ASF.

Heard commentary on WNAX this week China is ramping up poultry production as fast as they can. Not sure what that means tonnage wise, nor can I find any links or data to refute or support it, but it does not surprise me they are not going to wait long to fill the shortage.
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