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Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork
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mikado
Posted 4/13/2019 09:45 (#7436952 - in reply to #7436754)
Subject: RE: Bigalbert, Kooiker, Abomb, johnny


SW WI
Anyone else who wants to weigh in....do you feel China pooched themselves on this pork thing?

Couple things: When the trade war took off last summer, no surprise the Chinese were going to target ag products with tariffs. So just as sure as they switched to SA beans to fill their needs, they began sourcing pork from other places. Seems what I heard at the time was ASF contamination came from Russian pork products (go figure but that’s another conversation). Maybe given the post below perhaps feedstuffs from the Ukraine that ended up in Russia? Any way....you had a safe reliable supplier and you decided to make a point of “we don’t need you”. And I get it, their backs are against the wall, central planning at its best.

Second thing: when our prices for hogs bottomed out in February, I had posted, China wth are you waiting for pork will not get any cheaper, get in there and buy. My comment on not getting any cheaper was this: integrators were losing money. When was the last time that happened? Sure, they raise hogs at a loss but margin on PORK made up for it for a long time. That was a wake up call....but now looks very short lived.

Maybe the Chinese nailed the low to start buying. Maybe it’s a coincidence that it happened once they worked thru a good portion of culls as a meat source. Maybe they have contracts for the rest of the year, written in the February low.

I do think they will try other proteins. I just don’t see how they want to be that dependent on something from us. Probably clean out the EU of pork first, then other sources of protein. Look what they did to try to wean themselves off our beans...other sources, other products.

This is for wade garrett: you really got to clear your head from “the world revolves around US beans”
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