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Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork
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Baby Robin
Posted 4/13/2019 11:59 (#7437131 - in reply to #7436754)
Subject: RE. Ken Morrison - yesterday on Agtalk - soybeans demand increases


Fontanelle, IA
Ken Morrison was on Agritalk yesterday. He offered great insight into chinese pork production.

2 things that I took away-
1. Modern pork production in China is different than backyard herds with regard to rations. Backyard herds use whatever. Modern, westernized diets use bean meal. More chinese buildings displacing backyard herds will use bean meal base.
2. Pigs per litter. USDA estimates chinese sow production at something like 15 or 16 piglets per sow vs US in modern sow farms at 21 or 22 piglets per sow. China number is an estimate that tries to "account" for some sort of average of backyard sow herds plus modern sow units. ASF will push production into stricter bio security programs and facilities in China through the destruction of backyard herds. More and Newer China sow farms will increase piglets per sow meaning more pigs to feed .... Offsetting some of the production loss through backyard herds via ASF.

This is only my thought and mine only. Pork production in China appears to have a cultural and social foundation in Chinese life - particularly in rural areas. It will be interesting at the strains that ASF has created in rural life and the social fabric of China due to a loss of these backyard herds. I would guess that China govt will ensure that repopulation of backyard herds will not happen for a generation in order to contain ASF and other potential, and future disease outbreaks
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