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Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork
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Oliver1
Posted 4/14/2019 13:19 (#7438865 - in reply to #7438431)
Subject: RE: Chinese demand forecast down for soybeans and up for pork



Alton, Ia
Kooiker - 4/14/2019 07:28

jd 9760 - 4/14/2019 07:53

Increase slaughter weights seems like the best option. All this China issue is going to do is temporarily increase pork demand until they get their stuff together which may take a few years. The last thing we want to do is ramp up production and build more slaughter houses and go wild because the back side of this is a flooded pork market in a few years with plants shutting down and barns standing empty. Increased demand should result in increased pork price. It's not up to the US producer to make sure china is fed. Take the increased price and the income boost but don't start going crazy like it here to stay because it won't be. Use that money to update your current facilities and catch up from those years of low prices. Ride the wave, make some money, and be happy about it. You don't want to be holding the note on a big new facility when production rebonds and prices fall. Stick to your growth plan, don't get in too deep and enjoy the show!






You obviously have no clue what hog producers do when they make money.  THEY EXPAND.

Heck they don't even have to be making money to expand.   They'll expand just on the notion that there may be a profitable time coming in the future.    Sometimes they even expand while losing money trying to dilute fixed costs over more head.

They/we can't stand to have prosperity long term.









Not to disagree, but I gotta believe the high hog prices presently out there, may lead to MORE expansion than planned a few months ago. You are right, anytime there has been constant expansion for years, but I would think some of the deep pocket guys are dusting off plans and permits and pulling new sites forward.

The scary thing to me is the higher the highs, the lower the lows down the road.
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