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JonSCKs' Trendline Exports plotted
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JonSCKs
Posted 12/21/2013 22:49 (#3537439 - in reply to #3536887)
Subject: Corrected.


I noticed this morning that the 2012 corn export number was wrong.. and sure enough I missed it.. when I posted it.. basically transposed in thunking that 8/??/12 was 2012.. It's 2011.

"Whoops"

I checked all the other export numbers for the other two crops.. and I thunk.. I got it.  ;-)  lol..

Now it does change things quite a bit staying at only 4 years on the corn.. and since it is the creators perogotive to make it as he wishes..  I added a fifth year to the corn..2008.. which was a pretty good year.. but like 2013.. prices were lower.. and one would expect exports to pick up.. Econ 101.  So doing that pretty much put's it back to what it was.. before the change this week projected 1998.. fixing 2012 lowered it to like 1730.. adding back 2008 put's it back to 1981.. so.. ???  I still think USDA is gonna have to raise exports no matter from their really low 1450 number.. more like 08.. 09.. and 10's 45 to 48 mmt's.

The Soybeans get messed up as we go farther back as I've talked about.. Front loaded bean sales are becoming MORE front loaded.. and we're already there now.. so going back further only pumps up trendline exports there and we're already nearly out..  Wheat.. ???  Who knows.. ??

Okay here ya go..  (anyone else see problems that i missed.. golly I thought this board checked things.. ;-)

             
             
  Soybeans  Corn      
  Total Shipments  Total Shipments     
1989 16.8   58.7      
1990 15.2   42.9      
1991 19   39      
1992 21.5   40.3      
1993 16.4   32.2      
1994 23.4   54.7      
1995 23.6   55.8   All Wheat 
1996 24.5   44.5   Total Shipments 
1997 24.5   37.2      
1998 22.9   49.6      
1999 27   48.8   25.5  
2000 27.6   47.7   25.8  
2001 29.9   48   24.1  
2002 29.1   39.9   20.8  
2003 24.212-Dec  48.212-Dec  29.612-Dec 
2004 29.97  Booked 45.4  Booked  26.6  Booked 
2005 25.5   54.3   25.3  
2006 30.3   54   22.9  
2007 30.4 Additional Ship59.97 Additional Ship32.6 Add Ship
2008 33.9   45.222.622.6 26.0  
2009 39.630.698.91 48.322.6425.66 21.715.46.3
2010 39.9934.255.74 45.224.420.8 33.425.08.4
2011 36.723.1813.52 37.92413.9 26.619.07.6
2012 36.230.335.87 1812.65.4 26.317.78.6
2013 20.539.04  9.127.5  17.923.6 
    8.51   22.8   7.7
   47.55   50.3   31.36 
             
 projected1746.67 projected1980.61 projected1151.77 
 pace  pace   pace   
             
 USDA40.151475 USDA36.841450 USDA29.951100 
             
 Difference272 myn bu  531 myn bu  52 myn bu
             
12/5/2013  297   523   53 
11/28/2013  273   508   47 
             
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