I love your charts.. I don't have a good package on my laptop to do that so.. appreciate the pic's.

What I think is interesting is the relationship between the accumulated exports and the outstanding sales. I have been under the impression that sales exceeded actual exports due to "cancelation games". That doesn't seem to be the case. If anything actual exports seems to exceed outstanding sales by quite a bit. It is also interesting how next year's outstanding sales becomes this year's outstanding sales on Sept 9, the beginning of the new marketing year. It is also interesting to see how outstanding sales accumulate until harvest time and then begin to get filled. Notice also how soybean exports come early and then taper off while corn exports seem to start slower and get going later after the soybeans.  

Bingo!   

If you take the accumulated exports of Soybeans of 20.5 mmt's for this year and add the 18.5 mmt's of sales you get 39.93 mmt's either shipped or waiting to ship.. which is about the total that we did in 09 and 10.. for the WHOLE Year.  However at THIS DATE in THOSE years we still added to total exports by the end of the marketing year of 6.43 mmt's in 2010 and 8.91 mmt's in 09..  So yes we do see cancelations but we have not yet reached the historical point (although that point changes from year to year..) that we peak out and cancelations meet or exceed sales.. (uh-hum.. but that date is coming.. here in a few..)  That is WHY the sales this week "Hey they are POSITIVE" even though there were some cancelations.. was note worthy.. "still adding to the pace."


We are STILL CHEAPER than South America.. Our basis TODAY is cheaper to buy from the US.. clear out to March.. Now we ALL KNOW how that game is played.. when the first truck hits the scale in Brazil.. boom.. N/C bid.  That will happen in January.. then they have to ship it to port.. boom.. a few weeks later.. and that will attract ships.. and the first couple loads will be.. "give me give me give me..." but basis will soften.. and by..??  February.. we will see things switching over..  The thing is they do NOT have the capacity to export that we do.. so Maize's scenerio of where East Coast bean users replace with South American supplies.. buy the time the basis crashes enough down there.. (remember they have a book of sales to fill just like we do.. they are probably sold out through.. March.. April..??)  So you stand in line to buy "cheaper" beans.. and you pay the demurrage.. and by the time you actually get filled.. uh-hum.. no doubt the ABC's will send the first boatload to deliver against the CME.. but still.. that worked better when just a boat load would break it.. last year.. we imported 36 myn bu of beanies.. and this year.. golly given the export tear we are on.. ??  Could be more...???  And so it "could be" June/July before you get significant numbers of bushels back up here... ???  Give or take..  All I know is that ships waited in port by May for upwards of 90 days.. to get loaded.. AND supposedly they're gonna try to push MORE through the ports THIS YEAR... 


"golly and I thought the bean line at the processor was long..."


So you are kind of seeing S American port congestion/constraints in your Soybean Shipments chart..  Notice how earlier "boom" US exports died.. (really have to go back further in the data to see it..) and now we "taper a little longer.."  because.. World demand is outpacing the growth in S American port Capacity..  WE SHIPPED 91.4 Myn bushels of Soybeans the week of 11/14/13.. ONE WEEK.. it would take brazil.. maybe a month to do that.. ???


NOW.. if you would plot US Corn exports along with the Soybean exports you would see better WHY US beans are Front loaded.. over the past 4 years we sell and ship ON AVERAGE another 8.5 mmt's of beans from this point in time.. by the end of the marketing year.. and US Corn exports are backloaded... over the past 4 years.. we sell and ship ON AVERAGE another  23.2 mmt's..  Plus we have already peaked out on sales.. of beans.. now just filling the orders.. while we may have just reached the peak of the corn sales book..  but it will go a little more hand to mouth..


Everyone is looking at last year's poor corn sales of 18.57 mmt's.. 731 myn bushels.. and yet we have already booked in sales that amount PLUS shipped 9.8 mmt's.. and we expect to sell another.. 20+ mmt's.. If history is any guide.


Plus.. a market advisor I track noted in yesterdays pm comments..


"We expect fund rebalancing to bring about 80,000 contracts of buying to the corn market over the next couple of weeks.." 10 mmt's worth of paper to the buy side..  "fwiw."


The reason I didn't go back any farther than the past four years was a) time and b) the distortions from switching beans to S America was less then.. and it overestimated the sales.. aka we sold more beans in the later part of the year "back in the day."  Which that trend is no doubt continuing.. and the bears remind us about.. "often" so.. yes we can and expect to see bean cancelations.. but still.. this year it's also going to take bean imports to claw back to USDA's numbers.. and even adding to crop size and imports.. "that's a pretty hefty job."


Ray J says.. "the farmer always wants to hold until we run out..."


well.. over the next 2 months on beanies.. "we're there."  From a US bookings for exports standpoint.


"smoke'm if you got'm."

er.. a more PC comment would be..

"enjoy it while you can." 


The Corn market will be more drawn out.. Most of the exports still have to be sourced and shipped from the interior as the farmer has held tighter to those stocks.. or "the market thinks we have more then we do.."


I keep going around with my merchandiser contacts.. They bid up for nearby..  but are under the impression that there's bookoo bushels yet to come.. (?? and maybe there are..??) but golly this IS NOT the biggest CROP I've ever binned.. Heck I didn't even FILL my bins.. and after coring and delivering on Contracts.. I'm deeper into shipments than normal.. some years we don't even START until March...  and the coop.. golly.. they've moved even faster than I have..


Do the bears ever consider that maybe.. "paper bushels on USDA's balance sheet does not equal Bushels in the bin..."  ???


You can draw trendline yields.. (and trendline exports..) but at the end of the day.. it's what is ACTUALLY done.. what's there.. in the bin.. or not.. that matters.  I'm not sitting on some big humongous inventory.. any more than I have in the past.. been 2..3..4..5 years or more that I've had more than this in the bins at this point in time.


"someone is gonna get surprised.."