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Posted 12/20/2013 21:26 (#3534802)
Subject: JonSCKs' Trendline Exports plotted

Death comes to us all. Life's but a walking shadow

For the past few days JonSCKs has been trying to educate us about exports but for some of us following the numbers is sometimes difficult. I took a few minutes to plot some of the data to which he referred in order to get a better grasp of it. I made one adjustment. In Oct when the government went on holiday they reported three weeks sales & exports all on one week. In order to make it more reasonable I divided that big number by three and put a third into each of three weeks concerned for both corn & soybean; sales and exports.
What I think is interesting is the relationship between the accumulated exports and the outstanding sales. I have been under the impression that sales exceeded actual exports due to "cancelation games". That doesn't seem to be the case. If anything actual exports seems to exceed outstanding sales by quite a bit. It is also interesting how next year's outstanding sales becomes this year's outstanding sales on Sept 9, the beginning of the new marketing year. It is also interesting to see how outstanding sales accumulate until harvest time and then begin to get filled. Notice also how soybean exports come early and then taper off while corn exports seem to start slower and get going later after the soybeans.
I appreciate JonSCKs bringing this data and the topic to our attention. It helps to see how the annual export cycle unfolds each year and how circumstances affects it. For example, how corn exports collapsed last year while soybean exports were less affected.
Thanks again JonSCKs.