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South Central Iowa | Via twitter and RJO, who is my clearing house, so I can use it too right? definitely right:
https://twitter.com/BriereSimon/status/834766573609029632
Trade was looking for 90.8 in corn and 88.2 in soybeans which is pretty close, maybe a little friendly on corn. Really, it should be factored in, but I think we might see more pressure in soybeans. I will admit that I don't believe that number will be the final, I think it will be more than a million lower and that we will be somewhere in the 86 million acre range.
So, S&D soybeans: 88.2*99%= 87.3 harvested x 48 bpa = 4,190 bushels. Current USDA usage is 4,108 for 16/17. Seasonal adjustment based on usage is 4,260, so carry-in could be between 270 and 420. Adding 2% increase in usage would bring 17/18 usage up to 4,190 bushels (convenient) and on adjusted as stands today it would be up to 4,345 (USDA won't print a number like that until after the fact). So with carry-in being 270-420, production being 4,190, and usage being 4,108-4345 for 17/18, carryout 17/18 looking to range 115 to 500 mb. My most likely is carry-in of 270 and usage projection of 4,200 leaving carryout 17/18 at 260 mb, 6.2% stocks-use. That would probably be a high $9's, low $10's harvest price at 260 mb.
Corn is slightly friendly, but they predicted 90 million acres last year, so what's that worth. Corn needs a disruption, doesn't have to be huge, but it needs something. 90 ma x 92% = 82.8 x 170 trend = 14,076 - 14,620 still leaves us with 1,800 or so carryout in 17/18 and probably mid-high $3's. Need a disruption.
Edited by Conan the Farmer 2/23/2017 08:54
 (USDA Outlook.jpg)
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 USDA Outlook.jpg (102KB - 246 downloads)
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USDA Outlook Acres
