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the bull is here for corn and srww
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Boone & Crockett
Posted 6/12/2019 06:53 (#7554519 - in reply to #7554491)
Subject: RE: Some things the uber bulls ignored today


coup - 6/12/2019 06:34

Boone & Crockett - 6/12/2019 05:22

Farmspec - 6/11/2019 19:57

I really like your analysis and $4.75 could very well be the top of the range. As a speculator, the idea of a higher trending market over a 5 month period with lotsa volatility caused by Weather and WASDEs is quite appealing. This kind of market will also be excellent for marketing crops. You will have time and opportunity. Scale up selling is usually a winner. Looking forward to the June 28 USDA Inventory Report. Have a feeling that this one won’t be a disappointment.
I agree exactly. I much prefer a market that takes seven steps forward and five steps back and gives a person more than ten minutes to decide what to do. I’ve been around a long time and this is the worst corn crop I remember since 93. I made a post a month ago using 08 as a comparison, on this date that year the weather Gods gave us a perfect growing season for the rest of the year and we still printed a 153 yield. And it all got planted too. Condition reports are going to take the reins on the corn market, as the real damage already occurred will surface. All that being said, please understand with prices the big end users are receiving for what they produce, $4.75 corn is enough to make them puke blood. Eplants were getting 3 times as much for ethanol and two times for Ddgs back when corn was 7 plus. That ain’t happening again. $4.75 is very expensive corn today.


Ethanol futures have went about $.24 gal in last month. x 2.8 gal = $.67 bu. Am guessing DDG price is probably tracking corn price Would = another $.24 bu. if they are. Total of $.91 bu corn increase. So doesn't look like more pain on the E folks with current values.
The wholesale price they recieve has not gone up that much. There is basis involved in the price they recieve. I wish Ethanol Insider still posted, he’d be able to paint a current picture of the economics. I could too, with a few phone calls, but would not feel comfortable posting that information given in confidence, so will not go there. The recent rise in E price is only keeping them at very narrow profit margins, that much I do know. Do not assume E is gonna continue to increase another $.24, or $.12 for that matter. Especially in light of the free fall in crude.

Edited by Boone & Crockett 6/12/2019 07:07
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