Posted 6/11/2019 19:37 (#7553847 - in reply to #7553821) Subject: RE: Some things the uber bulls ignored today
Personally I would target a 13-13.2 crop after reducing acreage another 4 million. The wasde is using a 3.80 cash price to determine demand numbers. If forced to bump that up to 4.30 I think they knock off another 500 million demand(exports will go fast). 4.80-4.90 futures the market should accomplish its job. If we have a major weather scare threatening yield even more obviously things change. Crazy as it sounds I would expect crop ratings to improve the next couple weeks as the emerging corn should actually look good. 166 is a 6% reduction off trend, that is a sizeable amount. I would guess without looking it up it would be the second largest reduction from trend since we started planting so much traited corn.
As always we all are just WAGing. JP can claim all he wants the charts predicted this and the event just conveniently came along but price was going to do this know matter what. I think 99% on this board know better