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JonSCKs
Posted 2/8/2019 12:29 (#7306490 - in reply to #7306232)
Subject: Slow Walk.. Cut SAm production 6.32 mmt's exports dn 0.9


A year ago.. WASDE was at 54 mmt's.. 4 or 5 updates later.. they are at 37.8 mmt's for Argy production for LAST YEAR.

Looks like they made minor changes and punted it to ending stocks in a "to be determined" fashion..

We Still don't know how much Wheat, Corn and Soybeans China bought in January.. since those reports have not been released yet...

I just got home.. digging into the numbers.. probably over the weekend..  we'll see.. I saw the World Ending stocks fell etc.. and WASDE on Brazil down to 117.. updated info this morning is 107 to 108.. flip side.. WASDE left ARGY at 55.5 (Looking that up..)..

Oh wow.. they actually cut Argy (??) .5 from 55.5 to 55 and Cut "Major Exporters" crop size from 189.8 to 183.48 down 6.32 vs 169.74 Last year..

Brazil to 117 vs 122 down 5.0
Argy 55 vs 55.5 down 0.5
Paraguay 9.5 vs 9.8 down 0.3
which means Uruguay  ?? to 1.98 down .52

Cruching.. exports are cut to 93.27 down 0.9 vs 94.17 on the Dec WASDE.. Really ?!?  by Cutting Ending stocks.. (which again are Stocks with 3 to 5 months left to go..) to 54.02 mmt's from 62.92 mmt's... down 8.9 mmts!!!

WHILE cutting the WORLDS "Ending Stocks" to 106.72 vs 115.33 down 8.61 mmt's... hmmm...

They only cut China's imports by 2 mmt's to 88.. (my dartboard was at 86.. fwiw) and they "only" lower Chinese usage 3.5 mmt's to 106.1 mmt's.. hmmm.. ASF not withstanding..

Wow they actually CUT US Soybean exports..???  0.68 mmt's..  (not buying that one..)

Golly are we gonna sell to South America AGAIN next year...???

Nope.. I don't buy everything I'm reading here..

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