Posted 2/7/2019 12:35 (#7303705 - in reply to #7303667) Subject: China is living on stocks..
where do you see the 367.3 million bushel number being by september?
I don't understand your numbers.. don't have time.. mine are from the Dec WASDE or the USDA website (links are above)
I surmise that China has been drawing down on it's stocks of 23.54 mmt's which is up.. but when you were projected to use (before ASF) of 109.6 mmt's.. that will only get you so far..
They can draw stocks down.. but if the US switches alot OUT of Soybeans.. and or we have a drought.. then they would have to buy them in at a higher costs...
I suspect that COFCO and SINOGRAIN who pay the tariff (in theory) to themselves.. state owned.. have a good gig going.. and they are forcing the market to pay the freight to buy beans from South America.. twice as far as going by the PNW...
Those beans would have gone to someone else.. and those customers will have to source from the US..
depending upon how it all shakes out.. but I still see MORE in US Sales than the Dec WASDE of 51.71 mmt's because of:
a) South American drought.. Brazil alone will be down.. possibly as much as 8 to 10 mmt's below their 122 number.. plus Paraguay.. etc..
b) Even though China will take LESS than Last year's 94.13 mmt's.. they will still need some from Somewhere..
in other worlds SOMEONE has to fill the hole that supposedly China hasn't bought from the US.. maybe not ALL of it.. but as you pointed out above.. 20'ish mmt's of Soybeans can't come out of thin air..
... aka "the Soybean shell game."
been fun.. I'm going back to work.. yippy.. up to 12 degrees.. "lovely."