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Illinois Steve
Posted 2/7/2019 13:16 (#7303813 - in reply to #7303600)
Subject: RE: Demand, obviously you missed the memo.


North Central Illinois
China has been putting a lot of effort into finding other sources of protein. They are pretty resourceful when they need to be. How much that ultimately cuts demand is yet to be seen but it is definitely a real thing. Short term their demand has been cut by ASF. In theory that demand will come back. In the short term between alternative sources of protein and ASF it buys China more time for SA to further increase acres which they will do. Don't overlook the undeveloped acreage down there. Their biggest impediment is an unstable government and a lack of infrastructure to move the beans. China has been investing in the latter for a while now even before there was any talk of tariffs. The bottom line is even when this idiotic trade war gets resolved in some fashion the Chinese will never again look at us as a reliable source of soybeans. They will still buy from us but we will be their second choice and they will not buy one more bean than necessary from us. They aren't going to let themselves be put in this position again if they can help it. Get your head out of the sand.
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