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JonSCKs
Posted 2/8/2019 06:35 (#7305478 - in reply to #7303705)
Subject: Read your thread... China 4 vs 24.. rest of world 26.7 vs 16.5 mmts


down 10 mmt's total.. yal 31 mmt's vs 41 mmt's in TOTAL from the US 9/1/18 through 12/27/18 vs 9/1/17 - 12/31/17

31 mmt's OF Which China had booked/shipped 4.29 = 26.71 from the Rest of the World this year through 12/27/18

vs

41 mmt's OF which China had booked/shipped 24.5 mmt's = 16.5 from the Rest of the World through 12/31/17

Thus Through 12/27/18

China was down 20.3 mmt's.. (they booked another 4.95 this week + January which we do not know if any.. said they did though..)

While the rest of the world is up 10.21 mmt's..

Thus -20.3 + 10.21 = your down 10.09 mmt number..

okay got it.. just like the graphic above shows.. yup

...

Suderman was on Flory's show yesterday afternoon and said..

"Brazil we're at 112.2.. and could go lower.. but Argy at 55 could be higher as much as 60 to 61.."

fair enough.

EVEN IF Brazil goes as low as 112.. the WASDE will stair step it lower over 5 or 6 updates.. probably 120.. 119 today would be my guess.. knowing them.. 

But I also think the WASDE would be disingenious not to bump the US export number.. at least 5'ish mmt's to 56'ish.. but they seem to be slow... afterall.. China did book that this week..

Lost in the discussion from everyone above.. (other than numbers..)  Is that if China cleans out Brazil.. the rest of the World has to go somewhere.. which mainly would be the US..  Possible that "unknown" is not China.. but who cares..??

Sales are Sales.

In order for the WASDE to NOT bump US Exports say 5mmt's today... they will have to take a BIG reduction in Chinese demand.. Why would they slow walk Brazil's drought.. but Fast Track Chinese ASF?

Especially when the SALES are ANNOUNCED??

... Unless they are run by the ABCD's..

hmmm...  too early in the morning for conspiracies.. but come this afternoon...  ???



Edited by JonSCKs 2/8/2019 06:47
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