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10 mmt
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JonSCKs
Posted 2/7/2019 12:14 (#7303648 - in reply to #7303323)
Subject: The Data..


Okay where do you wanna start?

Exports to date:   https://apps.fas.usda.gov/export-sales/h801.htm  or as of a MONTH ago.. 

Through 12/27/18 : 16.944 mmt's shipped another 14.037 sold = 30.98  Of which..  https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrq.aspx 

0.341 has been shipped to China according to:  https://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/esrq.aspx 
but 4,290,490 booked through 12/27/18

That is the latest that we have.. What happened in January during the shutdown..???

But this week we have reports of:

586,000 to China and 182,000 to unknown..  https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/private-exporters-report-sales-act...

2,603,000 to China and 274,000 to unknown  https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/private-exporters-report-sales-act...

612,000 to China  https://www.fas.usda.gov/newsroom/private-exporters-report-sales-act...

thus: 4,290,490 + 586,000 + 2,603,000 + 612,000 = 8,091,490 to China plus unkown of 4,424,878 + 182,000 + 274,000 = 4,880,878 mt's.. not ALL of which will go to China.. but some to alot will eventually go there

Thus 8.09 + the better part of 4.880 or around 13.0'ish + whatever was booked during the shutdown of the 30.98 reported through 12/27/18.. 4.29 of it is in THAT number thus we know that

30.98 + 4.598 = 35.58 of which 13.0 is more or less China vs 27.6 out of 56.1 mmt's last year.

Now from the World perspective:

Dec WASDE China was gonna take 90 mmt's total for the year of which.. South AMERICA to EVERYONE (including China only has 94.13 and that is WITH BRAZIL at 122 mmt crop.. (which isn't going to happen..)

the Rest of the WORLD will take.. 61.92 mmt's.. which the US will probably get.. well the EU will get 0.28 of it.. and probably the Black Sea..??  do they have any?

the US will get the other 98%..

Some have Brazil down to 101 mmt's.. FC Stone at 112.2 and most at 116 to 118.. Dec WASDE at 122.

there ya go..



Edited by JonSCKs 2/10/2019 19:25
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