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Folks say they want this forum to be marketing again, then lets do it. I have a question
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IN555
Posted 11/25/2018 12:17 (#7126464 - in reply to #7126389)
Subject: RE: Folks say they want this forum to be marketing again, then lets do it. I have a question


NW Indiana
Fall tillage and NH3 are definitely behind so that would possible lean towards not the huge jump in corn acres that might be thought. Really to maintain the carryout that on a percentage basis is historically reaching low levels, corn really needs to pick up 6 million acres. Talking to some seed guys it sounds like corn sales are up in IN and IL. So if those two states plan on a descent switch one would think the poor soybean basis areas would be thinking the same at minimum. I could see a 92-94 number printed on the March intentions, which I wouldn't consider bearish. All that said I think we have to factor the soybean balance sheet as well. New crop ratio has been trading in the low 2.3's, is that enough to entice the switch? If not does soybeans go lower or does corn go higher?? I think it will all be based on spring weather. If it is a early warm spring I think soybean price drifts lower, cool wet spring and corn price could get strong. So what are your risks?? Personally I will be selling new crop corn if I get a chance and will likely be patient on beans.
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